Sep 22, 2008

Why Predict?

Einstein once argued that it is possible to predict the future outcome, with 100% accuracy, of any event if the initial values of all the variables were known. But its this very particular requirement that makes the task impossible, the task of having to know the values of all the variables.

There is a theory contradicting the above statement, and its call Principle of Uncertainty. It states that it is impossible to measure the accurate value of any system. The reason mainly being that the more your try to be accurate, the more you tend to affect the system's parameter. It was mainly argued that this was due to the imperfections in the measuring instrument. No measuring instruments are accurate and this seems to be the undeniable truth. For example, its quite impossible to measure the flow of the river without affect the flow itself.

Therefore, many complicated mathematical theorems have been established to predict the values instead of measuring it. But, there is problem with this method: Its only a prediction, giving you not the accurate values but the probability on the values. And this seems to be a new age of interpreting the values, that is, in terms of percentile. For example, what is the probability that it will rain tomorrow. Its a simple question that can be answered by observing a clouds or analyzing the previous data on the behavior of the seasons and finally you may say there is 50-50 chance for raining tomorrow.

So how do we predict? First we have to understand the system that you are trying to predict. If its a weather, you have to have the models of your environment like location of clouds, values of temperature and so on. Once you have almost complete model on your environment, you can make few prediction basis on your analysis of the data provided. Therefore, the data processing and data interpretation seems to be the core of predicting the values of the quantities.

Can we justify our predictions? Yes, we can justify it because we know that in a system, variables are dependent with each other and further there is an underlying relationships between them. This relationship between the variables can be found out by collecting data and applying statistical tools like correlation and so on.

But there are many problems with this method so it is not that easy to create a model of any system. Lot of details has to be considered, like the source of the data and its authenticity. Also, the data must be collected in such a way that it won't disturb the nature of the system. For example, if you want to get a detail on popularity of the brand then its very likely that the people will not be able to give their own choice. It may be because he/she can be influenced by others choice. This is only a very few problems associated with data collection. So its another field of research, how to get an exact data, also don't forget the uncertainty principles.
We will be off course talking a lot on the statistical tools that can be used to model the system. But for now it is reasonable to say that "Its better to predict accurately then to measure inaccurately".

Sep 20, 2008

Vision

Each of us start in a Life with an open mind and a hopeful dream. Some how or the other, as we go along the way, we start focusing on something, something that seems so important to us. I don't know what this thing is, neither do i know its importance. But its true that somehow we start to accept the changes that is going around. Slowly and steadily.

Its amazing how people decide what they want to do and how they want to live. We start by learning the basics and go focusing into it for the search of real truth. But somehow it happened opposite for me. In every stage, as I was moving ahead with my education, I started getting more confused. I had more questions than before. Well it happens all the time and to everyone of us. The vision started getting bigger. I started having more subjects as my favourites than before. But normally it doesn't happen this way. Normally we get narrower and narrower in our thought. We keeping branching ourselves and finally end up on the tip of one of the branches. We play a game of choices with ourselves.

The reason, I start writing with a picture is because we first see things and then ask ourselve a quesiton and try to figure out the solution. That happens to be our thought process, observe and then think. One of my friend told me not to think so much otherwise I might turn into a philosopher. Hmm PHILOSPHER. "Someone who thinks."

But I want to say that I am not discussing on the perception of human minds, I am not talking on the question of knowledge and consiousness. I am simply pointing out the facts that puzzles me. I consider myself a child who is confused by the way we live and the way world exists in itself as a whole. Its simple as that. I can't understand it. 

Every one has faced this statement - "welcome to the real world." You pass your tenth grade and your relatives will tell you ,"Be careful you are venturing into the real word." But alash, you find out that this isn't, cause your teachers will tell you, "this is a preparation for the real world and the not the real world it self." So now you are totally confused. Years passes by and you are finally in your bachelor and still you are told the same. You pass your bachelor and damn again you are told the same. Seems to be living in an illusion.

So what is this real world anyway? I suspect if it even exists. Aren't we all living in the same world? May be and also may not be. This is where I am starting to think. The world as seen by a child and a world as seen by an adult is completely different. Am I wrong? So.... can a childs vision be of any importance to the world, the world which is in itself relative to each one of us. So I sit wondering what I thought about the world when I was a child, my dreams as it was then and as it is now. 

And there is only one thing that is common. Even then and even now, I am still confused. Cannot clearly see the bigger picture. When will this vision of mine will be clear and focused. But this focus is not like the one found in our camera lenes, cause it can only focus at particular distance. I am talking about the focus which is everywhere and all over. Crystal and Clear. May be, it will never be but still I want to ask questions to myself, simple plain question.   
 
 

  

Sep 15, 2008

Great Expectation


" Mirror O Mirror, 
Look at me and tell my future.
What is it that I have to be,
or to be or not to be."

Strangely, its this particular question that boggs me a lot. To be or not to be. I don't know what it means nor do I know if it means any thing. Do I have to be something or nothing? 

Since everyone's childhood society keeps checking on your progress. They look at your each move and warns you of so called DANGER. They tell you what to do and what not to do. Do you know why? Because since the begining of the human race, individualism has been nothing but a danger to the society. History justifies that. Know why? Donno myself but it seems its the nature of the society and nothing else. 

Society needs balance in their thoughts. It needs to feel secure of it-self cause human race needs to exist and survive the time. It needs to exist forever. Isn't that the whole reason for our growth? We need to exist. But what if one individual rises to question the whole existance? Well its a threat to the human race. Cause that will make human race insecure, that is why society checks people to see that they don't digress from the rudimentry thought be it wrong or right.

When you are young and just learning to walk the path and feeling free to think on your own, society confuses your mind by asking you one very particular question. "So..., what do you want to be in your future?" Looks like a plain and mundane question. But No. Its this particular question that suddenly breaks the freedom in your thought process and forces you to think about your future. "Hmm, what do I want to be?" 

You start to look everywhere to see what is it that you want to be. Some are forced, some simply fall under the trap, some stay confused and some stay strong and fearless. And it is this person who  rejects the whole society's values and norms and become a threat. Do you want examples of it? I don't think I have to give any, its so obvious. But thats not the end, in climax, he wins. But the victory comes at a price, a dreadful price and a painful one. But finally society learns to think his way, the way which is suppose to be the truth. But this too doesn't last, cause the new HE rises again. It can also be SHE. So the process continues to infinity bringing unexpected changes in the society. But the challenge always remains. 

May be it is this challege that one has to face everytime. Some takes the challenge while some submits itself to it. This challenge is the core cause of revolution. The new begining but with a definite end. 

But am I wrong? Does every new thought has an end? Can we think of a way to bring this whole oscillation to an end? But will that bring anything? Think again. May be it is THE CHALLENGE that is a trap.  My whole reason is to make everyone think one their own and come to their own conclusion and not to follow unlesss you yourself come to a similair conclusion. 

But one thing is sure, the society keeps expecting from each individual. Everyone is expected to do something, cause we all are one living organisms fighting to exist, be it a right way or a wrong way. 

Sep 13, 2008

Source and Noise




lets look at the same graph again. But this time, look at each individual curves and you will find something very interesting.

Look at how the graph shoots up at the end of each year. This does not happen only for sony but for every other graph. Can you guess why? May be just may be it is because of the new model that appears at the end of each year. Or may be some thing else. The art of analysing goes into not jumping at any conclusion when you don't have enough data. Its good to assume but not be guaranteed about it. So what do you do? Well, instead of making more assumption lets look at more data. You may be correct or totally wrong. 



First thing in analysing is knowing that you are looking at the correct graph and that you are comparing the correct things. For example, the four names (dell,sony,hp,apple) looks very similar, but they aren't. You don't have any mobile phones of hp, as far as I know and neither do dell. So is it right for us to be categorising them in the same domain. No! You can also see above that dell and hp has a lower and different trend than that of sony and apple.

So here is the graph of only sony and apple. They seem to have similar trend but the levels are not still the same. The only thing that is 100% certain is that sony is more popular among google users. I have to be as accurate as possible because not every one's search engine is google.

Wow, look at this one. When I am comparing ipod and sony they are head to head. Strange. Why didn't the 'apple' search show the similar result. Apple is same as with mac or ipod. Hmm.

This shows and proves my one point which is - Have full confidence in your data first. With different search words we will have different results. So lets not go random but systematic in it. Example, 'apple' is not the correct search word to compare two companies cause apple is a general word with many meanings, so this result of apple doesn't mean that it is the apple company. In engineering term, it means correct your source of information and use a very good filtering mechanism to insure that you are getting particularly what you are searching for. This is not an easy task, remember the source is very very messed up. Thus we have to engineer our way of analysing it. From the above graph we can only assume and also have fun. 

The next thing that I wanted to concentrate is the randomness or the noise in it. The zigzag of the graph means noise to me cause I don't want it. I want  a smooth graph with some logic, not vibrating one unless I am looking at the oscillating system. In this case, it seems people's interest are oscillating, so may be it is an oscillating system. But even there, there is a noise in the graph and we need to get rid of it, in such a way that we do not ignore the real information. 

Looking at a noise, for me, started a long time back when I use to work with my friend Ansu. When every we gave an input to a electronic system, we had a peculiarly annoying set of noise. We had less interest in the signal cause that is what we expected but the noise its so unexpected. So we would go head on with ourselves to eliminate it. But alas, we don't have a practical way of deleting it but only reducing it. The reason is when you are dealing with the noise, you are also dealing with the information. So you have a negative feedback effect.

Surely, these seems less of an business problem than a hardcore engineering problem. But hold on with that thought. We are dealing with a business problem so our noise also has that characteristics. So we must have a business model which could be in any domain. Then we have to deal with them accordingly. 

And it is our jobs to make sure that we have a reliable graph from a reliable source with less noise. The task is very frustratingly difficult one as you don't know where to start form. So make sure, you have your goal fixed, so you know what you are looking for. If you don't know what you are looking for you can't find it no matter how long you search.

Space Exploration

Great piece of engineering! How many years did it take for us to reach here. But there is one question that everyone is asking. "Is it worth spending so much on it?" I don't know how much does it cost? Pretty lot. So....should we stop? Hmmm.

Imgaine yourself, one fine morning you wake up and find yourself in a deserted island. You look everywhere and you can't find anything that looks like you. Remember Tom Hanks in Cast Away. Well yup pretty much like it. What would you do?

First you would see if there is any one. Not finding anyone, you would slowly try to survive in the environment and you may live or die. If you die its the end. But if you are alive what would you do next? Explore! you would explore unless you are lazy. And believe me some people are so lazy that they have lost their human instinct. Now that is the correct word "INSTINCT". 

After much time, you would also start to wonder about life and question your existence. When you finally think its time to put yourself on the captains seat and explore, you would. 

And there are few who can take these initiatives. So in a bigger picture what we are doing by spending money in Space Exploration is that we are following our instinct. We are searching for a reason of our existence and it is very important for us to do so. For us to know that we are doing something about it. Though yes, the whole thing might have been started due to the cold war or the warm war. It makes sense to me to try and explore.

Yes, we may be wasting a lot of capital but can we stop ourselves from not tring to know our origin. Do we still have space in us for these kinds of questions or have we lost all our enthusiasm in it. I don't want to argue if it is right or wrong to do so, simply because I can't justify neither.

But I can assure you that once you stop searching, you are sure to find yourself in a BIG deadlock in your life.

On Failure

Everyone is happy here, cause we won. We all enjoyed it very much. We succeeded on something.

So what is it to be successful in Life? Does something has to certified for it to be claimed as success, and failure cause its uncertified or lets say certified failure. Hmm. Have you thought about it? Reason we feel successful and the reason we feel failure. But its not so easy cause what we think is dominated, most of the time, by what others think of it. So we call for majority to decide on our success. Ironically the majority wins, it is so called a Democratic View or Democratic ways. 

Is majority always the correct? But I don't want to discuss on that, what I am interested is in the fear behind being unsuccessful in life. The fear that always hunts us when we feel we are going down in life. I say, let us not fear. So easy isn't it? But it takes a hell lot of courage to think in this way, Or you can also say you have to be stupid enough not to know the risk. Well, which ever way we put it down, the fear is not going to be defined this way. But we can understand the origin of it and I really mean it.

Inorder to understand your fear, you first have to change your prespective on success. Well said. You may be shouting at me inside, "Perspective. Huh. Anything you don't understand , people say change your perspective. What the hell is this perspective anyway?" Well, I really cannot argue on that cause I can't. 

Since your childhood, we have been taught to look only from one way, the good way, the right way and the way everyone looks. I am not encouraging people to break the rules but yes I am encouraging people to break the usual trend in the thought process of human beings which is sometime so predictable.
 
Personally, perspective is all that matters to me. For me failure is a way of learning your limitations and building on your confidence and strength. When you fail, try to see the reason behind it. And try to be true to your-self why you failed. Now, this is very important. We are not true to ourself 90 percent of the time because, we need to answer to our ego. This EGO which resides in every one of us. This EGO is the god father of ourself. Once you become true to yourself, any failure that you come across, you can smile at it store it into your memory but don't hurt yourself in doing it. Just know that it is a fall among the millions that is going to come ahead. Just accept that, failure does not have any ends so, there is nothing to worry about it. Beileve me everyone of us know what is the right way, only thing is we bindfold ourself and lie to our EGO.
 

Sep 12, 2008

Something on Life

look at it. As I was playing with MSpaint, I made it just for fun. Then, somebody comes and tells me, wow, is it an abstract art. I go "Mmmmmm, I donno."

But he doesnot stop there, he pulls down the chair and sits and stares at it. I think you have portrayed a life. And I go LIFE!. How can it be life. Then he goes away leaving me confused. Then I stay confused and totally flattered in a way. "LIFE" I am thinking. But how?

Then I draw the same in paper and try figuring it out. Life Huh. So I toss the paper, and see if I can see it. Nop not from this angle and I go and see from other angle. No no. I think I am getting something wrong. For about 15 minutes I stare at it like a zombie. Inside me there is this voice shouting "LIFE". If I can just see it. But no. I get frustated. I try coloring it and making it look as stupid and as abstract but I have no success. I go as far as I can. I burn it. I tear it. I flip it. I take it near to the mirror. It try to look at it from different perspective. I try to create a mathematical equation for it but still no Life. Dammn. I must be a fool. How can he see it but not me. 

After much frusted hours I look back at it and see its no longer what I made it before. It is no longer so simple. Now it has become more complex and absurd and totally stupid. I give it one more glance. Then I realize something. I smile to myself. I tear the paper off and walk out of the room. I am satisfied,  I think to myself.  Now I see the Life. Can you? 

Perspective

Look at this picture very carefully. It was taken a year back when I was on my field trip to one of the hilly villages in Nepal (Richowk). I was there for a case study on Solar Power System. 

I stood here in this particular spot for about some minutes and it totally changed my view on the concept of development. And mind you, I was there only for a minute but those minutes were too powerful for me. 

Look at the river winding itself around the land and making its way. And if you look closely, you will see Nepal's national highway too, winding along with the river. Following the nature seems so vivid and strong here. 

One may wonder why is the river winding itself and not going straight and same goes to the highway. WHY? Just why does it have to wind itself. Even nature seems helpless to its own structure. Even nature is finding difficulties in over-coming itself. But as the scientific reasoning goes, the river will ultimately take the short-cut and so will the roads. So are we waiting for the river to make the first move?

What if we don't wait and bombard the whole mass of land with bombs and make the way for the river. Isn't that possible? I think it is. But just a second. Should we do it? Hmm. Its a same kind of ethical questions that you ask now and then again to yourself.  So what do we do? Confused. Ya I am full of confusion. So lets ask ourself a new question. Is it necessary to have a road that goes straight through the hills. Well, yes I think. It will make the journey fast. But how much capital do you think must be invested to attain this. May be, we can do something better with it then bombarding the place and if you are really in hurry, I suggest taking a plane. Well, may be well said. 

There is philosophy which says go with the nature and not against it. Because if you go against it, you distrub the whole balance of the nature. Imagine in this case, our one stupid step to make a straight road may have impact on the people staying there. Their usual life-style will be distrubed. But I am not arguing that lets not do it. What I mean is go with the nature and it will guide you through. Trying to straighten the river, you may be bending the nature. Think about it.

But everyone has differnt way of thinking. May be not everyone will follow my logic cause we are made that way. We have multi-dimensional perspective. Even though we are looking at things from the same angle physically, your mind seems to be in totally different dimension. Perplexed and Amazed, I can only say  when you do realize the truth make sure we follow it without fear. 

Introducing Analytics


Let us jump right into the graph. What do you make out of it? 

The graph has been taken by using the google.com/trends.

lets see.
Four different words has been compared with each other on the bases of how many times they were searched in the google. 

Does these words(sony, hp, apple, dell) mean anything to you? Well its obvious that these are related with the four different big brand names. Well then, what can you infer from the graph? Straight away, you can say that the word sony has been searched more often then the the others, showing its relative popularity among the people. But watch out the result is related only to the United Kingdom region. May be in other region, its different.

But is that it? Is that the only thing we can infer from the graph. Well lets think over it. Can't it have any relation to the share market values? Does the two different types of trends have some relationships with each other. Is it possible to infer the trend in share values by looking at the trend in its popularity in google? 

Well, may be yes. May be it is possible to do so. Or may be and just may be its even possible to predict the future values too. 

Analytics is just the field that is trying to deals with these unquestionable questions. 

Look, Observe, Transpose and Deduce. But the steps are not so simple as it looks. There are many different and complex mathematical theories that can play into the process of deduction. Hence it turns out that Analytics is just the other field on its way to becoming engineered. 

Well next time, I will try to explore just what complexity may rise during the process of analysis. It a pure science of deduction. But when you get it just right then its what Sherlock Holmes would say, "Elementary , my dear Watson, elementary."



Sep 10, 2008

Disclosure of the Blog

"The views are entirely our personal and they in no way represent the view of the company we am employed with."

"The views are not targeted against any company, Institute or Person. If it happens to attack someone's interest, it can only be the coincidence."

"Our views keep on changing with time and we consider it to be the consequence of having open mind."

"All three points mentioned above are valid for the entire blog."

The day I dreamt of becoming someone

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