### Why Predict?

Einstein once argued that it is possible to predict the future outcome, with 100% accuracy, of any event if the initial values of all the variables were known. But its this very particular requirement that makes the task impossible, the task of having to know the values of all the variables.

There is a theory contradicting the above statement, and its call Principle of Uncertainty. It states that it is impossible to measure the accurate value of any system. The reason mainly being that the more your try to be accurate, the more you tend to affect the system's parameter. It was mainly argued that this was due to the imperfections in the measuring instrument. No measuring instruments are accurate and this seems to be the undeniable truth. For example, its quite impossible to measure the flow of the river without affect the flow itself.

Therefore, many complicated mathematical theorems have been established to predict the values instead of measuring it. But, there is problem with this method: Its only a prediction, giving you not the accurate values but the probability on the values. And this seems to be a new age of interpreting the values, that is, in terms of percentile. For example, what is the probability that it will rain tomorrow. Its a simple question that can be answered by observing a clouds or analyzing the previous data on the behavior of the seasons and finally you may say there is 50-50 chance for raining tomorrow.

So how do we predict? First we have to understand the system that you are trying to predict. If its a weather, you have to have the models of your environment like location of clouds, values of temperature and so on. Once you have almost complete model on your environment, you can make few prediction basis on your analysis of the data provided. Therefore, the data processing and data interpretation seems to be the core of predicting the values of the quantities.

Can we justify our predictions? Yes, we can justify it because we know that in a system, variables are dependent with each other and further there is an underlying relationships between them. This relationship between the variables can be found out by collecting data and applying statistical tools like correlation and so on.

But there are many problems with this method so it is not that easy to create a model of any system. Lot of details has to be considered, like the source of the data and its authenticity. Also, the data must be collected in such a way that it won't disturb the nature of the system. For example, if you want to get a detail on popularity of the brand then its very likely that the people will not be able to give their own choice. It may be because he/she can be influenced by others choice. This is only a very few problems associated with data collection. So its another field of research, how to get an exact data, also don't forget the uncertainty principles.
We will be off course talking a lot on the statistical tools that can be used to model the system. But for now it is reasonable to say that "Its better to predict accurately then to measure inaccurately".

### Selling a Comb to a Bald Person?

Here my friend, Ashay, put it very truly to me that the marketer's most challenge is to sell a comb to a bald. First, I am not trying to justify anything here. But I just couldn't help thinking how on earth am I going to sell a comb to a bald. How? Just how? I kept pondering upon it till late night. I actually had very few options with me, the first was obviously to use Google and Find? :) But, I didn't do that. Some how I was still in confusion. Then just before going to sleep, I had an discussion with my other friend, on types of marketing on issues related to customer centric marketing. Hmm. Then some how it hit me. I went back to basic on my own philosophy, sell things that is needed. So here is a small anecdote I prepared : Sale Person   : Hello sir. How are you? Do you have a time, plzzz? Bald Person : (Almost confused and in social causality) OK OK what is it? I don't have time. Sale Person    : Here sir, do you want to by a comb?  Bald Person  : Can't you

### Robert Sapolsky: The uniqueness of humans | Video on TED.com

Robert Sapolsky: The uniqueness of humans | Video on TED.com

### Fearful Consumer Market

Consumer market is something, I always feared. During my engineering days, I knew it was one area where I would not find myself working. I always feared the harsh competition of the market. I worried if ever, anything I made would sustain in the market. Or how people would react to it? You can say, I feared criticism and all the yap yap of group of people, who knows only how to suggest but not to act. Thus, I kept my interest into custom projects and not related to anything that a single consumer would use, rather it was something of community service. But with changing time, I knew I had to make a plunge into the ocean of consumer market and face the competition. "Be a man! Dude" That is what I would say to myself. I knew I couldn't swim, but I had to give it a try.  Journey into the consumer market is like that of 20000 Leagues Under The Sea . There are so many different kinds of creatures around to look and be fascinated. Some are small living in tiny groups. Some are